Baloney Meter Will free trade with the EU benefit everyone in Canada

OTTAWA – “At its heart, CETA is a framework for trade that works for everyone.” — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.——Sometimes, politicians can say just enough to let the words mean anything to anyone.Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was extolling the virtues of free trade with the European Union, known best by its acronym CETA. In his speech, Trudeau talked about better incomes for workers, entrepreneurs who will have access to new customers, consumers paying less at the checkout counter, manufacturers who can expand their global reach, and more predictability and transparency for the “engineering, architecture, and information technology” sectors.In short, he said, “CETA is a framework for trade that works for everyone.”So does it?Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of “no baloney” to “full of baloney” (complete methodology below).This one earns a rating of “some baloney” because it rests on your definition of “everyone.” Let’s sort through it all.THE FACTSA 2008 joint study by Canada and the European Union suggested trade would increase by 20 per cent and generate $12 billion annually in new economic activity — a gain of almost one per cent of gross domestic product yearly in Canada. The government says the ripple effects would translate into an extra $1,000 for every Canadian family, and 80,000 new jobs nationwide as tariffs are eliminated and the price to ship and purchase goods drops.Similar studies have also pegged an economic boost from CETA, but with lower effects on gross domestic product.A study published in the International Journal of Political Economy in September estimates 23,000 job losses in Canada over the next seven years — a blip in the domestic job market — and 200,000 job losses in the EU. The wage impacts under the economic models used in the paper would also be different than what the government says: The authors predict that average annual earnings would decline by almost $2,500 by 2023.THE EXPERTSResearch shows that overall, countries that liberalize trade see gains in jobs, average incomes, and standard of living, says Ian Lee from the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University. The benefits accrue in the long run, and may not materialize immediately, he said. But, Lee said, not everybody benefits, pointing to the Canadian textiles industry that suffered job losses after NAFTA was signed.The editor of the International Journal of Political Economy, Mario Seccareccia, an economics professor from the University of Ottawa, said the September research paper suggests benefits will accrue disproportionately to upper income earners, leaving working class people behind.On the other hand, the narrow assumptions underlying earlier studies may severely underestimate the economic gains to Canada, said Domenico Lombardi, director of the global economy program at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.Lombardi said CETA is more than a trade deal. It’s a new-generation agreement that includes provisions about harmonizing regulations and fostering greater co-operation. In that sense, he said, there are benefits that accrue to everyone, from companies down to consumers, although the benefits are more difficult to quantify.All this leads to a question, posed by Dan Ciuriak, former deputy chief economist at Global Affairs Canada: “Who did the prime minister have in mind when he said, ‘everyone’?”Ciuriak said CETA has a small, positive effect on Canada and the EU overall under the conventional economic models, making it good for all as Trudeau suggested. And consumers in Canada in the EU are likely to see more choice and lower prices, meaning “everyone” in that sense is better off under CETA, he said.The effects of the deal will vary by province and between EU member nations, but there is no independent study that considers the impacts of CETA on provinces that shows all would be in positive territory, said Ciuriak, who was responsible for economic analysis of proposed trade agreements in his last posting at Global Affairs Canada. (Global Affairs Canada’s website includes a section about provincial benefits.)There will likely be negative effects in other countries not part of the deal as their exports are displaced by a newfound preference between Canada and the EU, Ciuriak said.THE VERDICT“Overall, taking into consideration that it is a political statement, rather than a nuanced, footnoted academic assessment, I would characterize it primarily as beef, not baloney,” Ciuriak said.Unfortunately, beef isn’t on the rating scale — at least not yet.But given all the above, Trudeau’s comment earns a rating of “some baloney” because key information is missing. In its place, is the ability for the anyone to describe “everyone” in their own way.METHODOLOGYThe Baloney Meter is a project of The Canadian Press that examines the level of accuracy in statements made by politicians. Each claim is researched and assigned a rating based on the following scale:No baloney — the statement is completely accurateA little baloney — the statement is mostly accurate but more information is requiredSome baloney — the statement is partly accurate but important details are missingA lot of baloney — the statement is mostly inaccurate but contains elements of truthFull of baloney — the statement is completely inaccurateSOURCESAddress by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the European Parliament: http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2017/02/16/address-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-european-parliamentPierre Kohler and Servaas Storm: “CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses.” September 2016: http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/16-03CETA.pdfGlobal Affairs Canada: “(CETA) Benefits for provinces and territories.” http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/ceta-aecg/benefits-avantages.aspx?lang=engStanding Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade: “Free Trade Agreements: A tool for economic prosperity.” February 2017: https://sencanada.ca/content/sen/committee/421/AEFA/reports/FreeTradeReport_e.pdfColin Kirkpatrick, et al: “A trade SIA relating to the negotiation of a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada.” June 2011: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2011/september/tradoc_148201.pdfEU and Government of Canada: “Assessing the costs and benefits of a closer EU-Canada economic partnership.” 2008: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2008/october/tradoc_141032.pdfRBC Economics Research: “The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.” October 2013: http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/other-reports/CETA.pdf by Jordan Press, The Canadian Press Posted Feb 23, 2017 7:27 am MDT Last Updated Feb 23, 2017 at 8:20 am MDT AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email Baloney Meter: Will free trade with the EU benefit everyone in Canada? read more


UN urged to help countries devastated by recent natural disasters to build

Participants at the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) special meeting on the ‘Aftermath of recent hurricanes and earthquakes: Achieving a risk-informed and resilient 2030 Agenda.’ UN Photo/Rick Bajornas As the UN and the international community step up efforts to assist countries affected by hurricanes and earthquakes, the Economic and Social Council organized on Tuesday an ECOSOC Special Meeting on the ‘Aftermath of recent hurricanes: Achieving a risk-informed and resilient 2030 Agenda,’ to discuss the current situation along with the economic, social and environmental impacts on those affected. “These disasters led to tragic loss of lives, displaced people, damaged infrastructure and homes, and disrupted livelihoods in both developed and developing countries,” said Marie Chatardová, ECOSOC President in her opening remarks. “We have seen how inequalities exacerbated people’s exposure to the impact of disaster,” she continued, noting how easily development gains can be erased if a risk-informed, resilient 2030 Agenda is not pursued. Saying that the impending cost of recovery and reconstruction in affected communities raises concerns over long-term sustainable development, Ms. Chatardová underscored, “We must help affected States get back on the path towards sustainable development.” Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said “the international community has a responsibility to support affected countries to become more resilient; to promote a risk-informed approach to reconstruction; and to strengthen their financial systems so that they can cope with such large-scale shocks.” She recalled Secretary-General António Guterres’ visit to the hurricane-devastated Caribbean earlier this month and his strong appeal not only for humanitarian aid, but also for new mechanisms for building resilience. “Investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure and housing pays off over the long term by reducing economic losses and loss of life. We must harness the power of technology, innovation and partnerships to move towards a green, clean, sustainable energy future,” she argued. Ms. Mohammed outlined a three-fold aim to meet immediate needs, put new concessionary financing arrangements into place and design and implement a framework for long-term financing resilience, saying “the Secretary-General looks forward to determined follow-up action by the Council to ensure strong progress on the ground.” In his introductory remarks, General Assembly President Miroslav Lajčák said that the response must “match the magnitude and urgency of the situation.” He stressed the significance of preparedness, by increasing resilience and reducing risks – particularly in the lead-up to next month’s 23rd UN climate change conference, which offers “an excellent opportunity to reiterate our commitment towards the implementation of the Paris Agreement […] the 2030 Agenda and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.” “More must be done to respond quicker and more coherently, especially to restore basic and emergency services,” he elaborated, calling vulnerability an obstacle to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Vulnerability through climate change, conflict, instability and economic weakness, “will be a significant set-back” in the affected countries, maintained Mr. Lajèák. Asserting that “we must ‘build back better’ amidst recovery efforts,” he encouraged all key stakeholders to support the recovery and rebuilding efforts in all the affected countries. Drawing on lessons from previous disasters, participants shared country response measures and practices to manage natural disasters, and examined how the UN system and its partners can better work together at all levels to help countries effectively reduce risk. Delivering the final statement on behalf of the President of ECOSOC, Ambassador Inga Rhonda King, Vice President of ECOSOC said that all Member States have committed to developing and implementing holistic disaster risk management at all levels in line with the Sendai Framework, emphasizing, “It is now time for action to turn these commitments into reality for all.” read more


EHF Cup Momir Rnics lastsecond goal leads Frisch auf Goppingen to the

In a very dramatic game, Frisch auf Goppingen scored a last-second winner through Momir Rnic to secure their place at the EHF Cup F4 in Nantes. After the first game in Maribor ended 27:27, the second one in Germany saw 30:30 with only few seconds to go and which would see Maribor at the F4, but Momir Rnic with a last-second of the game scored the winner and huge joy to the FA Goppingen supporters. 31:30 final score.In the all-German game, RN Loewen overcame the -3 deficit from the first game against SC Magdeburg, and with 27:20 secured their place at the F4 in Nantes.The last team to participate at the F4 will be known today in a game where Holstebro hosts KIF Kolding, the first game finishing in a draw. ← Previous Story Nandor Fazekas (MKB Veszprem): “The referees were against us” Next Story → ASOBAL (Round 27): Naturhouse La Rioja win, take third place EHF CupgoeppingenGoppingenholstebroKIF KoldingkoldingloewenlowenMagdeburgmariborMomir RnicrnicSC Magdeburg read more